Friday, February 11, 2011

test sheet

Flags went up when I saw their projection of 92% CAGR in mobile traffic growth over the next five years. From what I can tell from the scant details on assumptions provided in the report, I suspect the growth is driven (more than driven, in fact) by the growth in the number of users. Cisco predicts that the number of mobile-only Internet users will grow 25-fold between 2010 and 2015, reaching 788 million
mobile-only Internet users, over half of them in “Asia Pacific” (defined to exclude Japan).

Working back from their forecast data volumes and assumption on user growth indicates that Mbps/user is flat over the period as a whole, even declining.

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